First Thoughts on the 2014 MLB Player Draft











So today is the 2013 MLB player draft. I started thinking about that last night, as well as the following non-subliminal message Sandy Alderson has sent out since the 2012 season ended.

The world begins in 2014!

That got me thinking ahead to a year from now, and the 2014 player draft. One good thing about Sandy’s quick kick (just don’t call it punting) of 2013 is we are¬†going to get a high protected pick in 2014. I mean, c’mon, we are not beating out ten teams this year. So I held my breath and looked at the standings, and sure enough heading into last nights games we had the fourth worst record in all of baseball. Since we are suffering through some pretty bad baseball to “earn” the right to pick fourth next year I wanted to get an idea of the potential long-term payoff. I know the draft is hard to nail and that even picking that high there would be some hits and some misses. So I took a look. The list below are all of the players selected fourth in the country from 2003 – 2012, as well as a brief comment on their careers to-date.

  • 2003 – Tim Stauffer – San Diego (Made it to the big club, in his eighth mediocre season)
  • 2004 – Jeff Niemann – Tampa Bay (Has been a solid back-end starting pitcher, currently on the DL)
  • 2005 – Ryan Zimmerman – Washington (Star major league third baseman)
  • 2006 – Brad Lincoln – Pittsburgh (Aaron Laffey lite)
  • 2007 – Daniel Moskos – Pittsburgh (Not as good as Lincoln)
  • 2008 – Brian Matusz – Baltimore (Failed as a starting pitcher, has found success as a situational lefty for the Orioles)
  • 2009 – Tony Sanchez – Pittsburgh (25 years old and no MLB experience to-date)
  • 2010 – Christian Colon – Kansas City (24 years old .636 OPS in the PCL this season)
  • 2011 – Dylan Bundy – Baltimore (Has not pitched in 2013 due to elbow issues)
  • 2012 – Kevin Gausman – Baltimore (Recently called up to the majors by the Orioles)

I found this list a little depressing. Only one star so far (Zimmerman, although Bundy and Gausman are still both touted) and only three players that you could charitably call above average major leaguers (Zimmerman again, Niemann, and Matusz.) The biggest thing that jumps out at me is no wonder Pittsburgh didn’t sign their pick last year! I can’t blame them for not thinking they could get things right at number ten last year since they blew the third pick three times in ten years.

And so I went back and checked and can save you the trouble. The fifth picks in those three years were Brandon Morrow, Matt Wieters, and Matt Hobgood. Hobgood has had arm troubles and has not progressed past A ball but the other two players would jump right up under¬†Zimmerman at the top of this collection. So if you eliminate the “Pirate factor” it looks a little sunnier.

There you go, as you watch the 2013 Mets stumble and bumble through the season, remember, it’s not just about getting to see the Latroy Hawkins farewell tour. It’s also about a shot at the next Stauffer or Moskos!

It will all be worth it someday.

Just ask a Pirates fan.

The Giants picked this guy two picks after number four in 2009. I've heard he is supposed to be pretty good.

The Giants picked this guy two picks after number four in 2009. I’ve heard he is supposed to be pretty good.

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  1. Tim Stauffer was a local kid, pitched for Saratoga Central Catholic. He played ball with my friend’s son — with the South Troy Dodgers, perhaps? — so I’ve always taken a rooting interest in him. Stauffer was injured BEFORE the Draft, even notified the Padres, and they picked him #4 overall anyway. He’s really never been healthy for any sustained period. A superior talent derailed by a bum shoulder.

  2. Also of note: Niemann was part of the talented trio from Rice — including Philip Humber and Wade Townsend — and they all got injured pretty much right out of the shoot. Bad luck or some bad coaching down there, I can’t say. The Mets took Humber #3, I believe. Back at that time, Mike, we were on a message board with a guy named Walt who raved, raved, raved about all three of those draft options endlessly. Ah, high hopes. So again, is that bad drafting or just bum luck . . . or should folks have looked harder at the usage patterns down in Rice?

  3. I don’t have the latest on Bundy, but he sure looked like a superstar-in-waiting to me. Drafted out of HS, zipped through Farm in one year, pitched 2 IP at a 19-year-old for the Orioles, visited James Andrews, got plasma injections at some point. Now resting, I gather? Not sure. I think he’s reached 100 MPH on the gun. You know, that’s been another thought I’ve had about Wheeler — the notion that these guys eventually get hurt, that there might be only so many bullets in the gun. Had to waste all those healthy years in meaningless games.

    • Michael Geus says:

      I think the bullets argument exceeds pitching prospects. TD has already had multiple injuries and catches. The idea that he is a sure fire lock to be useful six or seven years from now is illogical. What we do know is he is a talented cheap option right now.

      I still maintain sending him to Vegas was dumb business.

  4. Michael Geus says:

    Also, a reminder with that 2013 draft tonight, Mack Ade has been posting great detail on draft related items on Mack’s Mets all year.

  5. […] posted all the draft analysis you need on June 6, 2013. I wanted everyone to have time to do their Holiday […]

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